Lehigh Valley

Behind the Ballot: Red wave coming with November election?

Leading up to the midterm elections we've heard a lot about a blue wave as Democrats try to take control of the House and possibly the Senate.

But after the Supreme Court hearings for Judge Brett Kavanaugh and allegations of misconduct when he was in high school and college, there has been a lot of talk about Republicans forming a wave of their own. 

"We have seen in polling over the last week that Republicans have become more excited about the midterms elections," said Director of Muhlenberg College's Institute of Public Opinion Chris Borick.

Borick says historically the party that doesn't hold the White House does better in midterm elections and it's unlikely there will be a red wave.

According to a summation of polls posted on the political website 538, Democrats have a three in four  chance of winning the House while Republicans have a one in four chance of keeping control.

Over in the Senate the odds are flipped, with Democrats having a two in nine chance of taking control and Republicans have seven in nine chances to hold it.

Borick says it's possible Republicans may pick up a few seats in the Senate because most of the seats up for re-election are currently held by Democrat incumbents.

Borick says right now the political climate is very fluid and depending on whether Kavanaugh is confirmed, voter enthusiasm and turnout could change.

"The big question I think is, what's the lasting effect. Right now this hearing and the process is energized Republicans. It has energized Democrats to a degree, but it narrowed the enthusiasm gap that we're seeing in this election," said Borick.


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