TODAY: Cloudy and windy, but also milder with periods of rain and a t-storm; flooding is possible, perhaps damaging winds in a t-storm. High: 61
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy and breezy with an early shower or t-storm. Low: 41
TUESDAY: More clouds than sun; breezy at times and chillier with a shower or two. High: 47 Low: 29
Hopefully everyone had a nice Thanksgiving holiday and took advantage of the rather nice weather this past weekend. Yes, highs cooled back closer to normal in the low 50s over the weekend after we had very mild highs in the 60s for Thanksgiving. High pressure in firm control however brought us ample sunshine and not too gusty winds. That dry and sunny weather all changes today as a strong low pressure system rides up the Appalachians, delivering a round of soaking and windswept rain, with perhaps a t-storm or two thrown in the mix as well. A short-lived surge of 60-degree warmth will accompany the gloomy start to the week, however the rest of the week will feature a return closer to normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. The rest of the week looks to be mainly dry as well, although a broad upper level low pressure system trailing behind our main surface low from Monday will keep a shower chance in the forecast for Tuesday and might even spark a stray flurry or snow shower for areas well north and west of the Lehigh Valley on Wednesday.
A potent area of low pressure will be riding up the spine of the Appalachians today moving over Virginia this morning, central Pennsylvania during the afternoon, eventually reaching Upstate New York by this evening. With this track, the region can expect a round of windy and wet weather to unfold for a good portion of the day. Look for rain to gradually overspread the region from south to north this morning, eventually becoming steady and heavy at times by mid to late morning. This steady, and sometimes heavy rain should go through midday before it tapers back to more in the way of scattered showers progressing through the afternoon. Since we will be on the eastern side of the low track, a surge of warm and almost tropical-like air will surge into the region. Any snow will remain well to our west through the Ohio Valley while our region picks up anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall. Some localized flooding of poor drainage areas, low-lying spots, and smaller creeks and streams will be possible. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on is the potential for a severe t-storm or two, mainly during the afternoon. Thanks to some very strong winds aloft, plus the changing of wind direction from the surface to the upper levels, a t-storm could not only potentially produce some damaging wind gusts, but also potentially a tornado. That threat overall however should be relatively low, so don’t get too up in arms over it. The greatest concern for any severe weather occurring would be the closer you get to Interstate 95 and especially east of there. Even without any t-storms occurring, winds in general may still gust to 45 miles-per-hour possibly leading to a few issues with tree and powerline damage. At least it will be warm, with a one day surge of low 60s for high temperatures.
Our aforementioned low pressure system will slowly meander its way up through Upstate New York tonight pushing a cold front further to our east. Behind that front, a bit of drier and cooler air will settle in scouring out some of our cloud cover and shutting off most of our precipitation. While a shower or even t-storm can’t entirely be ruled out before midnight, much of the rest of the night should be dry. We can expect lows to settle back into the lower 40s with the numbers feeling more like they’re in the 30s as a stiff breeze continues to blow.
Our potent surface low pressure from Monday will be long gone to our north for Tuesday, however, behind it, a cutoff upper level low pressure system will slowly meander across the Great Lakes generating colder air while keeping more clouds than sun around along with the slight chance of a shower. Much of the day should be dry, but expect chillier highs compared to Monday, only in the upper 40s, and breezes gusting to 30 miles-per-hour adding an extra chill to the air. It might be cold enough to see a couple snowflakes across parts of the Poconos in addition to any raindrops.
The cutoff upper level low will move further north into Canada Wednesday allowing more sunshine to return to the region. A stray flurry or snow shower may remain for parts of the Poconos and higher elevation spots of the Interstate 81 corridor from Schuylkill County northward, but otherwise most of the region will have a dry day. The cutoff low will continue to filter in chilly air, so expect highs Wednesday to only reach the low 40s, and the breeze will still be a little gusty at times making it feel like it’s well back into the 30s.
High pressure will finally return while that pesky cutoff low moves well away into Canada. Our winds should finally really ease up, and with mostly sunny skies and more of a westerly breeze as opposed to a northerly breeze, we can expect highs to return closer to normal in the upper 40s.
There is some uncertainly surrounding the evolution of a low pressure system coming up from our south as we approach the weekend but as of now, the thinking is that high pressure will hang on Friday yet to keep things dry. We can expect increasing cloud cover, however any rain should hold off until at night from the looks of things right now. Highs should remain seasonable like Thursday in the upper 40s.
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