TODAY: Cloudy with snow, sleet and freezing rain changing to all rain late; stays icy to the north. High: 36
TONIGHT: Rain, and ice north, mixing with or changing to snow late; brisk and cold with some slick spots. Low: 33
MONDAY: Wintry mix changes to snow, then brisk and cold with snow at times. High: 36 Low: 27
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LUZERNE, CARBON, MONROE, PIKE, WARREN, AND SUSSEX COUNTY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LEBANON AND LANCASTER COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR BERKS, WESTERN CHESTER, AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LEHIGH, NORTHAMPTON, BUCKS, HUNTERDON, AND MERCER COUNTY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SCHUYLKILL COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
If there's one thing we can be thankful for, it's that the meat of our Turkey Day weekend has been dry. Chilly, but dry. Windy at times, but dry.
That changes to wrap up the Holiday weekend Sunday as a wintry mix of snow and sleet Sunday morning changes over to freezing rain by midday with a gradual transition to plain rain during the afternoon. This is "part 1" of our weather story with "part 2" in-store Monday. That's when we pick up some snow accumulations, though there will be a sharp cut-off between a lot to the north and very little to south.
Let's take this one day at a time...
For Sunday, low pressure will be lifting through the Great Lakes, sending a warm front through the mid-Atlantic, and eventually spawning a coastal low near South Jersey. A mix of some snow, sleet and freezing rain that initially battled dry air at the surface early Sunday morning, won the weather war by midday with precipitation making it to the ground in a steadier fashion. An easterly wind off the ocean will work to scour out the cold air creating a quick changeover from any wintry mix to rain along and south of I-95. Further north and west, however, that transition to rain takes longer. The rain line will likely not reach Interstate 78 until early afternoon, and by late afternoon, it will probably only reach the Blue Ridge leaving areas to the north through the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey with an icy mix right into Sunday night. With this first bout of wintry weather, most can only expect a coating to 1" of snow and sleet with some spots in the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey, certainly higher elevations, perhaps getting 1" to 2". The bigger story Sunday may very well be the ice accumulation due to freezing rain, and it doesn't take much ice to create dangerous driving conditions. Those near and north of the mainline Pennsylvania Turnpike may very well see 0.10" of ice with higher elevations, certainly in the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey, seeing as much as 0.25". As you might imagine with this setup, high temperatures will struggle to climb Sunday with the numbers only expected to reach the middle 30s outside of the Poconos where temperatures will be close to freezing.
Our coastal low will strengthen and deepen as it moves up the shore towards New England Monday. Northerly winds around the departing low will drag down colder and drier Canadian air, setting the stage for precipitation to change back to snow from north to south. The big question is, how much moisture will be left across our area?
Those in the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey stand the best chance to see the highest snowfall accumulations with 4" to 8" expected here, and possibly even more than 8" across the far northern Poconos and far northwestern New Jersey. Further south and west, however, things get trickier. There will be a sharp cutoff to the snow. Northern Berks County through most of the Lehigh Valley into central New Jersey may pick up 2" to 4" of snow with significant differences in snowfall totals over a short distance. Northern parts of Northampton County will easily push 4" while southern parts of the Lehigh Valley and the Reading area may barely get a couple. For Dutch Country, much of southeastern Pennsylvania and the Delaware Valley, as well as southern New Jersey...more rain will mix in with snow. Very little snow to perhaps an inch or two is expected here.
Quieter, brighter weather will return Tuesday, but don't expect things to feel much better. Tuesday will be brisk and cold with highs struggling to kiss 40 degrees. Aside from a brief rain or snow shower Wednesday and a few flurries here and there in the mountains, the remainder of the week looks dry.
Warm wishes for a cozy Sunday inside and off the roads!