Summer officially begins tonight at 11:32 PM EDT and it’s arrival is right on cue as it is certainly feeling more summery again. Very warm, even hot, temperatures and high humidity values will take us into the beginning of the new week. After all, we can't keep it away forever this time of year. A weak frontal boundary positioned just to our north may spark a stray shower or t-storm early on this evening, but overall, we can expect much of tonight to be quiet and muggy. A more vigorous cold front is expected to track in Monday evening into Tuesday bringing with it widely scattered showers and t-storms. A few storms may be on the strong side, mainly late Monday. On Tuesday, we can say good-bye, for now, from the summery temperatures as highs fall back into the 70s and humidity also takes a tumble. After our cold front slides off to our east later Tuesday, a pretty nice and refreshing stretch of weather ensues for the rest of the week.
A weak frontal boundary going back to Saturday that remains positioned just to our north may be enough to spark some isolated showers and t-storms early on this evening, especially considering it has an unstable atmosphere to work with due to the very warm and humid conditions. Winds are even strong enough aloft that we can’t entirely rule out a storm becoming severe, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concern. The Storm Prediction Center actually does have our area highlighted under a “marginal” risk for severe weather. Once more though, isolated is the key word, and there’s enough subsidence going on to prevent a lot of activity from occurring. Many will likely stay dry. Partly cloudy skies can be expected otherwise overnight as lows only drop back into the upper 60s.
It appears more and more likely that Tropical Depression Claudette will track well to our south on Monday, sliding off the North Carolina coast Monday morning and heading northeastward over the open Atlantic throughout the day. Claudette may actually re-strengthen to a tropical storm as it re-emerges back out over open water. Regardless, we won’t see any direct impacts from the storm, however those with beach interests along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts will want to be weary of rough surf and rip currents the next couple days. While Claudette is expected to miss us to the south, we’ll be watching a cold front moving closer to the region from the west on Monday. In advance of this front, a south to southwesterly wind flow will make for a hot and humid day with a mix of clouds and sun and afternoon highs approaching 90 degrees. While much of Monday should be dry, late in the day, a few storms created by the aforementioned cold front may start to work into areas west of the Lehigh Valley. As we get closer to sunset then, and heading through Monday evening, the rest of the area will likely have a better chance to see a shower or t-storm as our cold front moves closer. Some of these storms will have the potential to become severe with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has much of the region highlighted under a “marginal” threat for severe weather Monday with a “slight” risk highlighted from the Interstate 81 corridor and points west.
Our cold front will slowly cross the region Tuesday leading to a mostly cloudy and much cooler day along with the continued opportunity for showers or a t-storm. Dew points and humidity are expected to drop big time Tuesday, so don’t expect a severe threat for the day. High temperatures however will return to the low and mid 70s Tuesday which will be quite the difference compared to Monday. Late in the day Tuesday, we might see drier times with a little clearing as our cold front moves offshore.
MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK
After the passage of the cold front Tuesday, we'll welcome back refreshing air and low humidity midweek. The dry and pleasant weather we enjoyed most of last week will return for another visit as the jet stream takes a dive to our south while surface high pressure originating from Canada and the Great Lakes builds overhead. The result will be partly to mostly sunny skies from Wednesday through Friday. Highs Wednesday should be in the mid to upper 70s, then the numbers return closer to seasonable levels around 80 degrees Thursday and Friday. Nighttime lows are also expected to return to some comfy cool levels during this period well down into the 50s.
The first weekend of summer looks to be a classic one. Temperatures in the afternoon should be in the low to mid 80s, it'll feel a bit humid out, and there's a chance for a few pop-up storms. Forecast models show a developing low pressure system and cold front passing through, but the confidence on timing and impacts is low as we're still several days out. Right now, it doesn't look like a washout and we'll fine tune the forecast in the days ahead. Stay tuned!
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