Sunday certainly turned out to be a challenging forecast temperature-wise thanks to a warm front that was slowly trying to push its way northeastward through the region. It’s not uncommon this time of the year to see these fronts get hung up south and west of a lot of the area, and this in turn leads to temperatures being quite a bit cooler than originally forecast. Today was no exception to the rule as many only reached the upper 50s to lower 60s for highs along with overcast sky and a steady round of rain first thing this morning that tapered back to some hit-or-miss showers as the day wore on. Areas far south and west closer to the Maryland and Delaware border did get in on some of that warmer air south and west of the warm front with clouds even breaking up a little and highs climbing well into the 60s to near 70 degrees. A second round of some steady and heavier rain is expected to move through tonight, along with the possibility of a thunderstorm, as a cold front slides through. Upper-level low pressure will then move across the region for Monday leading to overcast sky, cool temperatures, and occasional showers. That upper low looks to exit for Tuesday allowing sunshine to return along with dry conditions and warmer and more seasonable temperatures. By the latter half of next week, our weather looks to turn cloudy, unsettled, and cool again as yet another upper-level low pressure system slowly moves across the region.
A cold front will slowly cross the region tonight while an upper-level low pressure system over the Great Lakes slowly creeps closer to the region at the same time. Periods of steadier and heavier rain are expected to return to the region with even a few thunderstorms not out of the question, especially for those well south and west where temperatures were warmer during the day Sunday. While no real severe weather is expected, a few storms could contain strong winds, as well as very heavy rain that leads to minor street flooding. Another 0.10”-0.25” of rainfall is expected on top of what you’ve already received, but isolated higher amounts of 0.50” to 1.00” are not out of the question. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.
Upper-level low pressure that was over the Great Lakes Sunday will slowly move across the region for Monday. This will make for quite the gloomy start to the week. We can expect overcast sky throughout all of Monday with a bit of drizzle or the occasional rain shower. To go along with that, an easterly onshore component to our wind will ensure high temperatures really struggle to climb. Look for the numbers to get no warmer than the low to mid 50s, but don’t be surprised if several locations remain stuck in the 40s. Cloudy skies along with a few showers are expected to continue into Monday night with lows dropping back into the mid 40s.
Our pesky upper-level low pressure system to start the week fortunately looks to move away out to sea for Tuesday. While early in the morning there may be some cloudy skies lingering, along with a stray shower closer to Interstate 95 and south and east, the day should be dry and turn brighter as it wears on with high temperatures warming back to more comfortable and seasonable levels around or just above 60 degrees.
A cold front is expected to approach from our west later in the day Wednesday. While we should start the day with a bit of sunshine, look for skies to turn rather cloudy by the afternoon with a few showers not out of the question as well. Regardless of the skies clouding up and a few showers popping up, a southwesterly wind flow ahead of our cold front should help raise high temperatures into the low and mid 60s.
At one point, it appeared the latter half of the week would turn out dry and sunny with pleasant highs in the 60s. Latest forecast guidance however has trended in the opposite direction with rather gray and gloomy conditions now anticipated as we round out the week. Thursday right now appears to be the wettest day as yet another one of these pesky upper-level low pressure systems slowly moves from the Great Lakes to right overtop of Pennsylvania. As it stands now, the result would be plenty of clouds along with rain likely for much of Thursday with highs only reaching the mid 50s. There might even be enough cold air available underneath the upper low to allow a little wet snow to mix in with the rain across higher elevations late Thursday into early Friday.
Our pesky upper low looks to make its way to the Jersey Shore on Friday still being close enough to keep a fair amount of cloud cover around along with some additional showers (and perhaps even a few snowflakes across the higher elevations). Highs Friday will be quite chilly for this time of the year only reaching the low to mid 50s, but perhaps not even getting out of the 40s in several spots.
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